The first half 2021 is shaping up to be an extension of most of 2020 with Covid-19 still raging and more political turmoil. The discourse on this is well documented in various media and I will not get into it here. Save for one point – My dad was a wounded WWII veteran of George Patton’s 3rd Army. In 1970, we lived in Stow Ohio (we are from New Orleans originally and went back home in 1976). My dad was in public relations for Kent State University in 1970. I recall going with him down to the office on May 5, 1970 and asking him about the Kent State shooting as he was going in to pick up some work to finish.
He did not have a lot to say but said that this shooting was a terrible thing. He also said he fought Nazis so that people could have the right to protest and he did not condemn the students as they had not crossed the line into violence, looting, destruction, etc… I am almost certain he would say that the peaceful protestors of the Summer and of Jan 6 at the Capitol had the right to be there and be heard. He would also condemn the lawlessness perpetuated by a small percentage of people involved in all cases.
We attended four shows in the last 3 months of 2020 – SCNA in Greenville SC, 2 West Houston shows, and the December Schertz TX show. Three of these shows were excellent, with SCNA being a bit weaker than I had hoped. But given our late application, we had a poor spot on the floor where a good part of the traffic never trod. The show attendance was weaker than 2019, but not bad and the business was solid to strong.
We will be attending these shows in the first part of 2020:
Houston Money Show – Conroe TX – Jan 22-23
West Houston Spring Show – Houston TX – Feb 19-20
Schertz Coin and Currency Show – Schertz (San Antonio metro) TX – Feb 27
Whitman Baltimore Show – Baltimore MD – March 25-27 (this has some risk of being canceled, monitor their web site)
West Houston Spring Show – Houston TX – April 9-10
GNA – Dalton GA – April 16-17
Central States – Schaumberg (Chicago metro) IL – April 21-24 (this show has some risk of being canceled, monitor their web site)
TNA – DFW area TX – June 4-6 (I need to get more info, not on web site yet)
IPMS – Not scheduled – Held in Kansas City in 2019 – not sure it will happen
Summer FUN – Orlando, FL – July 8-10 (this will probably happen if vaccine proceeds as expected)
The June Assessment of the Market Continues with Some Updates
The Confederate and obsolete paper money markets are generally solid. “There are a lot of new people coming in to collect more affordable 1862-64 notes” – this continues. And this continues too, “save for some high grade or hard to find low-grade rare notes, the more expensive notes remain soft, but have found a new set of price points that appear to be stable and have been holding up for a while. I already see some of the new people buying notes such as T-11, 12, 15, 19, 22, 23, etc. As some of these new people graduate to more expensive notes, those in turn will strengthen – seems like a great time to get that Montgomery or T27 or T35 you need.”
Southern state notes are as strong as they have been in years. These state notes are a fascinating set of series to collect and the vast majority of them are quite affordable and can be had for less than $100 each; many for less than $50. Texas Government and Republic notes are a bit more expensive, but also have strengthened in the past year with new modestly higher price points.
Obsolete notes are selling well at lower price points, particularly cheaper notes in high grade holders or low-grade notes for prices at 30%-60% of what they were in the early 2010s (there are some exceptions that held up better). Rarer obsolete notes are still soft yet are settling in at new lower price points. The Pease proof obsolete collection sales are pointing to a new price foundation. But given their rarity, it will not take many people entering the market (like 3-4 new moneyed buyers) to push this well higher.
My take on this market has not changed since June – Early American copper coins remain a mixed bag, but there too, I have seen an uptick in interest. More specifically, Fugio coppers have strengthened a bit. It was easy to buy many of the rare varieties at Fugio type prices not long ago. This buying opportunity appears to be ending with some price premiums returning to this market. Still not like before in the 00s, but perhaps heading back there ahead of the 2026 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
Large and half cents sell well if they fit into one of the popular albums in lower to mid-grade. There are new collectors at this level. Sheldon and Cohen varieties continued to soften with many R4 and R5s approaching Red Book variety value in all but condition census grades (there are some exceptions to this). I see this bottoming out soon, but I do not have a good feel for any uptick. Seems like a great time to attempt a Sheldon collection in lower grade. Newcomb varieties are a bit stronger but middle date R4s and better may have passed their peak. Over the past 50 years, large cents cycle through Sheldons, middle dates and late dates and back to Sheldons again. Right now, we are into a late date stronger period.
Please take a look at our new January 2021 lists for a rich inventory of new material.
As well as what we are buying!
Check out our calendar for more details on the shows we are attending and hope to see you at one of more of them!
Thanks! Pierre Fricke